Open inquiry11 min4 historical perspectives

How far can the past support the future?

Distinguish how repetition, domain, controlled comparison, and description change the support that past records give to the next case.

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1Around 1027Ibn Sina — Experience with repetition and conditions
Ibn Sina · Demonstration from The Cure
Does extensive repetition yield absolute universality, or only a strong judgment within specified conditions?
`al-Burhān` I.9 distinguishes `istiqrāʾ`, which enumerates limited cases, from `tajriba`, which joins repeated sense experience with inference.
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Ibn Sīnā (Avicenna): al-Burhān min al-Shifāʾ
Ibn Sīnā; translated and introduced by Hannah C. Erlwein · 2025 · MPIWG Histories of Experience around the Globe #002; Arabic source text from Badawī 1966 with English translation; CC BY 4.0 DE
Locator: Translation, pages 7–10; al-Burhān I.9
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Causation in Arabic and Islamic Thought
Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy
Locator: Section 4.1
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He argues that induction surveying only a limited set of cases does not guarantee absolute universal certainty and may yield only probable belief.
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Ibn Sīnā (Avicenna): al-Burhān min al-Shifāʾ
Ibn Sīnā; translated and introduced by Hannah C. Erlwein · 2025 · MPIWG Histories of Experience around the Globe #002; Arabic source text from Badawī 1966 with English translation; CC BY 4.0 DE
Locator: Translation, pages 8–10
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Scientific Methodologies in Medieval Islam
Jon McGinnis · 2003 · Journal of the History of Philosophy 41(3), 307–327
Locator: Pages 309–314
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`Tajriba` involves not only repeated observation but also an implicit inference that what happens always or for the most part is not merely accidental.
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Ibn Sīnā (Avicenna): al-Burhān min al-Shifāʾ
Ibn Sīnā; translated and introduced by Hannah C. Erlwein · 2025 · MPIWG Histories of Experience around the Globe #002; Arabic source text from Badawī 1966 with English translation; CC BY 4.0 DE
Locator: Translation, pages 7–9
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Causation in Arabic and Islamic Thought
Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy
Locator: Section 4.1
Open source
The universality supplied by experience is not absolute; it is conditioned by the repeatedly observed domain and the absence of impediments.
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Ibn Sīnā (Avicenna): al-Burhān min al-Shifāʾ
Ibn Sīnā; translated and introduced by Hannah C. Erlwein · 2025 · MPIWG Histories of Experience around the Globe #002; Arabic source text from Badawī 1966 with English translation; CC BY 4.0 DE
Locator: Translation, pages 8–9
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Scientific Methodologies in Medieval Islam
Jon McGinnis · 2003 · Journal of the History of Philosophy 41(3), 307–327
Locator: Pages 318–321
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The source does not claim that experience invariably prevents error or always leads to certainty.
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Ibn Sīnā (Avicenna): al-Burhān min al-Shifāʾ
Ibn Sīnā; translated and introduced by Hannah C. Erlwein · 2025 · MPIWG Histories of Experience around the Globe #002; Arabic source text from Badawī 1966 with English translation; CC BY 4.0 DE
Locator: Translation, page 9
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The MPIWG sourcebook labels this `al-Burhān` scene “Isfahan, ca. 1027,” treating it as an approximate period rather than an exact date.
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Ibn Sīnā (Avicenna): al-Burhān min al-Shifāʾ
Ibn Sīnā; translated and introduced by Hannah C. Erlwein · 2025 · MPIWG Histories of Experience around the Globe #002; Arabic source text from Badawī 1966 with English translation; CC BY 4.0 DE
Locator: Cover and page 1: Isfahan, ca. 1027
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1. This scene from the Demonstration is presented as Isfahan, around 1027.
  Around 1027
21748Hume — Distinguishing expectation from proof
David Hume · An Enquiry concerning Human Understanding
Even if repetition explains expectation, does it prove that the future must resemble the past?
Past experience directly concerns the objects and periods observed; extending it to similar new objects and future periods requires a further inference.
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An Enquiry concerning Human Understanding
David Hume · 1748 · Hume Texts Online critical text with E/SBN paragraph numbering
Locator: E 4.16–4.17
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Because a change in the course of nature or a different effect from a similar object is not contradictory, Hume argues that future uniformity cannot be proved by demonstrative reasoning.
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An Enquiry concerning Human Understanding
David Hume · 1748 · Hume Texts Online critical text with E/SBN paragraph numbering
Locator: E 4.18
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He argues that using an experiential or probable argument to prove the similarity of past and future is circular because it already assumes that similarity.
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An Enquiry concerning Human Understanding
David Hume · 1748 · Hume Texts Online critical text with E/SBN paragraph numbering
Locator: E 4.19–4.21
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Hume explains the principle that leads us to expect the same result after repetition as `custom` or `habit`.
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An Enquiry concerning Human Understanding
David Hume · 1748 · Hume Texts Online critical text with E/SBN paragraph numbering
Locator: E 5.4–5.6
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The analysis does not conclude that ordinary inference and action disappear; rather, custom makes experience a guide to life.
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An Enquiry concerning Human Understanding
David Hume · 1748 · Hume Texts Online critical text with E/SBN paragraph numbering
Locator: E 5.2 and E 5.6–5.8
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The first edition was published in London by A. Millar in 1748 under the title `Philosophical Essays Concerning Human Understanding`.
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Philosophical Essays Concerning Human Understanding — first-edition catalog record
Folger Shakespeare Library · 1748 · London: A. Millar, 1748; ESTC T4022
Locator: London: A. Millar, 1748; ESTC T4022
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1. The first edition is published in London.
  1748 · London · 출판
31843Mill — The structure of comparison, not only the count
John Stuart Mill · A System of Logic
Can one well-designed contrast provide stronger grounds than a thousand identical records?
Mill treats induction as inference from observed cases to unobserved cases, or cases at other times, that resemble them in specified respects.
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A System of Logic, Ratiocinative and Inductive
John Stuart Mill · Project Gutenberg text based on the eighth edition
Locator: Book III, chapter I §2 and chapter II §1
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He holds that simple enumeration without a counterexample is inadequate in many scientific inquiries where there is no assurance that a counterexample, if present, would have been found.
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A System of Logic, Ratiocinative and Inductive
John Stuart Mill · Project Gutenberg text based on the eighth edition
Locator: Book III, chapter III §2
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Mill presents as a central problem for a theory of induction why one case can sometimes be strong while countless agreeing cases can remain weak.
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A System of Logic, Ratiocinative and Inductive
John Stuart Mill · Project Gutenberg text based on the eighth edition
Locator: Book III, chapter III §3
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Observed sequence alone may not exclude a common cause; Mill argues that experiments comparing outcomes under arranged conditions can strengthen causal judgment.
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A System of Logic, Ratiocinative and Inductive
John Stuart Mill · Project Gutenberg text based on the eighth edition
Locator: Book III, chapter VII §§3–4
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The Method of Agreement compares a condition shared by several instances of a phenomenon, while the Method of Difference compares occurrence and non-occurrence cases with other differences controlled.
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A System of Logic, Ratiocinative and Inductive
John Stuart Mill · Project Gutenberg text based on the eighth edition
Locator: Book III, chapter VIII §§1–4
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John Stuart Mill
Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy
Locator: Section 3.3
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Because of background conditions and multiple causes, results from these methods must be applied cautiously and remain open to further observation.
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John Stuart Mill
Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy
Locator: Section 3.3
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A System of Logic, Ratiocinative and Inductive
John Stuart Mill · Project Gutenberg text based on the eighth edition
Locator: Book III, chapters VIII and X
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The first edition of `A System of Logic` was published in two volumes by John W. Parker in London in 1843.
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A System of Logic, Ratiocinative and Inductive, Volume II
John Stuart Mill · 1843 · London: John W. Parker, first edition, volume 2; Oxford University scan
Locator: Title page and publisher metadata, volume 2
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1. The first edition of A System of Logic is published in two volumes in London.
  1843 · London · 출판
41946–1955Goodman — Rival descriptions of the same evidence
Nelson Goodman · A Query on Confirmation · Fact, Fiction, and Forecast
With the same observations, why treat some classifications as guides to the future but not others?
“A Query on Confirmation” appeared in 1946 in `The Journal of Philosophy`, volume 43, issue 14, pages 383–385.
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A Query on Confirmation
Nelson Goodman · 1946 · The Journal of Philosophy 43(14), 383–385
Locator: Article metadata, pages 383–385
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Harvard University Press's edition of `Fact, Fiction, and Forecast` was published in Cambridge in 1955.
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Review of Nelson Goodman, Fact, Fiction, & Forecast
R. M. Martin · 1960 · Journal of Symbolic Logic 25(3), bibliographic review record
Locator: Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Mass., 1955, 126 pages
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Green emeralds observed before the reference time can be described, under the same observational facts, as satisfying both the predicates `green` and `grue`.
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Fact, Fiction, and Forecast
Nelson Goodman · 1983 · Fourth edition, Harvard University Press
Locator: “The New Riddle of Induction,” pages 72–75
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The Problem of Induction
Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy
Locator: Section 4.2
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Applying the same simple-enumeration schema, the two descriptions lead to incompatible predictions about emeralds after the reference time.
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Fact, Fiction, and Forecast
Nelson Goodman · 1983 · Fourth edition, Harvard University Press
Locator: “The New Riddle of Induction,” pages 73–75
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The Problem of Induction
Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy
Locator: Section 4.2
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The case shows that induction concerns not only the number of observations but also which predicates and regularities may be projected to unobserved cases.
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Fact, Fiction, and Forecast
Nelson Goodman · 1983 · Fourth edition, Harvard University Press
Locator: “The New Riddle of Induction,” pages 75–83
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The Problem of Induction
Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy
Locator: Section 4.2
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Goodman develops this as a `new riddle` added to Hume's problem, asking which way for the future to resemble the past is legitimate.
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Fact, Fiction, and Forecast
Nelson Goodman · 1983 · Fourth edition, Harvard University Press
Locator: “The New Riddle of Induction,” pages 59–83
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The Problem of Induction
Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy
Locator: Section 4.2
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1. A Query on Confirmation appears in The Journal of Philosophy.
  1946
2. The Harvard University Press edition is published in Cambridge.
  1955 · Cambridge, MA · 출판