The River of Probability
When did uncertain events become comparable and calculable?
From the 17th-century Pascal-Fermat letters on gambling, through Bernoulli, Laplace, to Kolmogorov in Moscow.
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What changed between the cities?
- 1
1654–1660
scholars and schools
ParisToulousePascal-Fermat Correspondence
Probability theory emerged from the 1654 letters between Pascal in Paris and Fermat in Toulouse about games of chance.
The problem of points and expected value in the Pascal-Fermat correspondence (1654)Place this segment on the map - 2
1700–1750
scholars and schools
BaselParisBernoulli's Law of Large Numbers
Jakob Bernoulli proved the law of large numbers in Ars Conjectandi, helping turn probability into a science.
Ars ConjectandiPlace this segment on the map - 3
1780–1827
scholars and schools
ParisGöttingenLaplace: Mechanics & Probability
Laplace joined probability with celestial mechanics and statistical physics, bringing determinism and chance into one framework.
Théorie analytique des probabilitésPlace this segment on the map - 4
1900–1933
scholars and schools
GöttingenMoscowKolmogorov's Axiomatization
In Moscow in 1933, Kolmogorov based probability on measure theory and established its modern axioms.
Grundbegriffe der WahrscheinlichkeitsrechnungPlace this segment on the map
How to read the lines
Each line is an editorial route through problems, texts, and practices. It does not imply one book moving in a straight line, a sole invention, or identical adoption everywhere.